* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL902015 08/30/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 29 31 34 41 46 49 48 50 52 52 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 29 31 34 41 36 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 29 29 31 34 32 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 16 14 13 19 16 20 22 31 35 38 29 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 0 -3 -2 -3 -5 -5 -2 -5 -6 -9 -7 SHEAR DIR 302 284 271 236 221 250 223 219 214 217 209 224 207 SST (C) 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.3 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.5 28.8 28.2 27.9 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 174 172 172 171 171 170 170 166 159 146 137 132 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 174 171 168 163 155 146 144 139 131 120 111 106 103 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -54.1 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 11 11 10 10 8 9 5 8 4 9 700-500 MB RH 64 63 62 61 59 56 56 56 60 61 62 61 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 7 3 5 3 5 5 5 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -43 -44 -24 -24 -47 -30 -56 -56 -71 -79 -83 -83 200 MB DIV 44 32 25 48 35 20 31 27 39 12 6 -10 0 700-850 TADV -12 -3 -1 3 6 1 4 3 0 2 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 97 115 14 14 27 40 36 -34 -162 -248 -335 -389 -392 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.3 25.0 25.8 26.6 27.9 29.3 30.4 31.5 32.6 33.5 34.0 34.2 LONG(DEG W) 79.3 80.2 81.2 81.8 82.4 83.2 83.6 84.2 84.8 85.4 85.9 86.6 87.4 STM SPEED (KT) 17 11 10 10 9 7 7 6 6 5 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 101 82 27 36 34 64 41 40 38 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 22 CX,CY: -15/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 846 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. -1. -5. -9. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -3. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. 1. 4. 11. 16. 19. 18. 20. 22. 22. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 ERIKA 08/30/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 ERIKA 08/30/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 ERIKA 08/30/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)