* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992015 08/30/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 46 56 58 60 60 57 54 50 48 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 46 56 58 60 60 57 54 50 48 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 37 40 45 54 60 62 61 57 53 50 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 8 8 5 7 15 15 19 22 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 5 6 6 6 7 4 5 -2 -3 3 0 SHEAR DIR 72 24 30 64 90 128 188 203 220 240 244 247 252 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 27.6 27.0 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 140 140 141 141 132 124 120 119 118 117 117 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 138 137 138 137 126 118 114 112 110 108 105 106 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 70 71 72 71 71 68 64 61 53 47 46 44 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 15 15 17 15 14 14 12 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 74 65 63 61 65 54 36 31 34 0 1 -15 -2 200 MB DIV 69 44 19 24 28 33 43 34 18 7 -4 -1 -12 700-850 TADV -9 -11 -12 -6 -4 -5 0 9 5 9 3 13 1 LAND (KM) 118 201 302 349 397 572 772 1006 1272 1488 1683 1832 1943 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 17.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 9 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 12 14 15 5 15 12 7 0 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. 3. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 26. 28. 30. 30. 27. 24. 20. 18. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992015 INVEST 08/30/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992015 INVEST 08/30/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)