* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/30/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 124 127 130 127 122 116 108 109 108 108 110 112 V (KT) LAND 115 124 127 130 127 122 116 108 109 108 108 110 112 V (KT) LGE mod 115 126 132 133 133 128 122 118 115 113 112 113 114 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 7 7 9 10 9 8 6 10 11 13 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -4 -2 0 2 0 0 4 4 -1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 250 247 245 246 238 255 253 267 224 245 247 259 251 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 155 154 156 154 153 153 154 156 155 156 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.4 -50.4 -50.3 -49.7 -49.7 -49.7 -50.1 -49.8 -50.2 -49.5 -49.6 -49.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 13 14 13 14 13 13 13 13 13 700-500 MB RH 50 51 51 53 53 50 52 50 52 48 50 46 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 22 26 25 27 28 27 32 34 35 38 41 850 MB ENV VOR 23 24 14 11 14 -2 -6 -21 2 4 37 37 66 200 MB DIV 4 4 -30 -15 24 12 28 24 8 -1 50 26 25 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 2 4 2 7 3 4 5 3 6 4 LAND (KM) 1715 1778 1844 1881 1921 1985 2016 2035 3636 3566 3478 3442 3417 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.5 20.0 21.2 22.5 23.5 24.0 24.3 24.6 24.5 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 175.7 176.5 177.2 177.7 178.2 179.0 179.4 179.6 180.0 180.8 182.0 183.0 183.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 4 3 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 47 47 44 43 43 41 28 17 16 46 48 48 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -16. -22. -28. -34. -38. -41. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 10. 14. 14. 13. 7. 3. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 3. 3. 7. 9. 9. 15. 17. 20. 24. 28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 12. 15. 12. 7. 1. -7. -6. -7. -7. -5. -3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/30/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 35.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/30/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##