* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/30/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 123 121 115 107 90 77 65 58 57 53 48 50 V (KT) LAND 120 123 121 115 107 90 77 65 58 57 53 48 50 V (KT) LGE mod 120 120 114 105 96 81 68 59 53 50 48 47 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 15 14 14 20 23 24 17 19 21 21 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 0 1 5 8 6 0 2 3 1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 248 246 257 248 236 241 211 232 222 227 227 238 253 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.1 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 136 134 134 136 137 136 134 135 136 134 132 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.8 -51.0 -51.3 -51.0 -51.6 -51.5 -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.0 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 61 57 59 59 59 61 59 60 58 61 61 63 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 27 27 26 27 27 27 26 28 27 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 46 42 41 47 52 67 53 56 53 69 59 67 59 200 MB DIV 28 1 3 23 54 15 38 10 13 37 33 25 -6 700-850 TADV 7 6 10 6 8 6 10 7 8 13 19 19 13 LAND (KM) 851 758 670 580 493 341 253 211 228 265 326 440 580 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.4 18.1 18.7 19.2 20.1 21.2 22.1 23.0 24.0 25.1 26.1 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 147.3 148.0 148.6 149.3 150.1 151.6 153.1 154.5 155.8 157.3 158.8 160.4 162.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 33 29 22 23 21 16 18 16 10 12 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -14. -22. -31. -38. -45. -51. -55. -58. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -12. -10. -10. -12. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 3. 2. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 1. -5. -13. -30. -43. -55. -62. -63. -67. -72. -70. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/30/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/30/15 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##