* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/30/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 109 107 109 108 109 109 108 102 98 92 88 87 V (KT) LAND 115 109 107 109 108 109 109 108 102 98 92 88 87 V (KT) LGE mod 115 110 108 106 106 104 102 97 91 85 75 68 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 10 8 7 11 5 6 4 8 6 2 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 1 2 4 7 9 10 7 7 6 5 SHEAR DIR 319 342 357 4 3 16 61 61 49 334 342 298 297 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 156 154 149 145 141 137 134 132 132 131 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.9 -50.8 -50.5 -49.7 -50.3 -49.8 -50.4 -49.7 -50.6 -50.3 -50.9 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 59 55 55 55 54 54 54 57 60 61 64 63 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 32 36 35 37 38 40 38 39 39 40 42 850 MB ENV VOR 47 46 43 52 63 64 65 70 83 84 81 81 104 200 MB DIV 103 58 66 77 64 23 30 29 47 10 43 32 30 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -6 -10 -9 -7 4 6 9 7 5 3 4 LAND (KM) 2019 2076 2128 2191 2260 2230 1988 1777 1609 1485 1406 1327 1247 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.4 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 127.0 128.0 129.1 130.4 131.7 134.2 136.4 138.3 139.8 140.9 141.6 142.3 143.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 11 10 9 7 5 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 41 47 53 30 23 16 46 29 18 9 8 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -17. -24. -31. -38. -43. -47. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 2. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 4. 8. 10. 13. 11. 12. 13. 14. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -8. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -13. -17. -23. -27. -28. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/30/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/30/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##