* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062015 08/30/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 49 53 61 62 62 59 55 52 48 47 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 49 53 61 62 62 59 55 52 48 47 V (KT) LGE mod 35 40 45 50 55 63 66 66 62 57 53 51 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 9 8 6 6 10 16 17 18 18 18 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 6 6 5 6 4 7 0 -2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 28 31 63 90 96 152 205 211 234 236 243 245 246 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.3 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 141 141 137 128 121 119 118 117 117 119 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 139 139 133 122 114 112 110 108 108 110 113 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 72 71 73 71 70 64 61 58 51 46 47 41 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 15 15 17 14 14 13 12 11 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 61 60 58 65 60 43 29 37 5 -1 8 -3 -3 200 MB DIV 43 18 23 28 31 32 30 28 1 -2 4 6 1 700-850 TADV -10 -11 -6 -4 -6 -2 3 8 5 9 2 8 2 LAND (KM) 184 270 326 393 484 687 905 1143 1374 1573 1737 1940 2174 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.8 13.3 14.0 14.6 16.0 17.2 18.0 18.6 18.9 19.0 19.2 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 18.5 19.3 20.1 21.1 22.0 23.8 25.6 27.7 29.9 31.9 33.5 35.5 37.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 9 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 11 14 15 11 2 17 10 3 0 0 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 18. 26. 27. 27. 24. 20. 17. 13. 12. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 SIX 08/30/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 SIX 08/30/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)