* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL902015 08/30/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 30 32 34 39 43 47 46 45 46 48 51 V (KT) LAND 30 29 30 32 34 39 37 31 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 29 30 32 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 16 21 22 21 22 29 35 35 33 18 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -3 -3 -4 -6 -4 -2 -5 -2 -8 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 262 257 228 218 235 234 229 212 224 216 219 203 225 SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.4 30.3 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.5 28.8 28.3 27.7 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 173 172 171 171 170 170 168 166 158 146 139 131 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 173 168 158 153 148 145 141 137 129 120 113 108 104 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -54.6 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 6 7 5 8 4 700-500 MB RH 64 60 60 60 58 57 56 60 60 64 57 57 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 6 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -45 -29 -15 -31 -32 -63 -51 -85 -68 -111 -85 -127 200 MB DIV 34 21 54 33 8 35 16 27 7 10 -2 4 -12 700-850 TADV 4 2 2 5 7 4 3 0 3 -1 7 0 2 LAND (KM) 48 46 68 66 94 107 -14 -76 -144 -227 -266 -341 -392 LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.5 26.2 26.9 27.5 28.9 29.9 31.0 31.8 32.6 33.1 33.6 33.9 LONG(DEG W) 80.9 81.8 82.6 83.1 83.7 84.4 85.0 85.7 86.3 87.1 88.0 89.2 90.7 STM SPEED (KT) 16 11 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 59 49 67 57 48 49 40 43 23 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 20 CX,CY: -15/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 917 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 1. -3. -8. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 4. 9. 13. 17. 16. 15. 16. 18. 21. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 ERIKA 08/30/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 ERIKA 08/30/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 ERIKA 08/30/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)