* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/30/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 122 123 120 118 118 111 111 109 111 109 106 107 V (KT) LAND 120 122 123 120 118 118 111 111 109 111 109 106 107 V (KT) LGE mod 120 122 121 120 118 115 111 109 109 112 114 112 113 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 8 12 10 7 7 5 5 5 12 17 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 1 2 2 2 7 1 3 6 5 SHEAR DIR 265 256 249 237 248 246 243 258 221 291 251 281 274 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 155 155 156 156 154 153 154 156 157 157 156 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.4 -50.1 -49.7 -49.6 -49.9 -49.3 -50.3 -49.8 -50.2 -49.4 -50.0 -49.7 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 13 14 13 14 13 13 12 12 11 12 700-500 MB RH 52 50 56 55 56 55 53 51 50 49 47 50 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 27 25 25 29 27 30 31 34 34 35 38 850 MB ENV VOR 30 10 20 21 19 5 -4 -4 0 26 46 72 79 200 MB DIV 9 -32 -18 4 8 55 33 4 10 25 65 0 11 700-850 TADV -1 3 5 7 4 3 6 4 5 1 4 7 3 LAND (KM) 1789 1836 1885 1924 1966 2032 3725 3616 3557 3485 3406 3320 3247 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.8 19.3 19.9 20.4 21.7 23.1 24.0 24.2 24.4 24.5 24.8 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 176.5 177.1 177.7 178.2 178.7 179.5 180.0 180.4 181.2 182.3 183.8 185.1 186.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 4 5 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 46 44 43 43 43 37 24 47 48 48 49 46 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -12. -19. -26. -32. -37. -42. -45. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 2. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 1. 7. 4. 9. 10. 15. 16. 17. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 0. -2. -2. -9. -9. -11. -9. -11. -14. -13. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/30/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/30/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##