* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/30/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 119 112 101 94 77 67 64 58 61 58 58 58 V (KT) LAND 125 119 112 101 94 77 67 64 58 61 58 58 58 V (KT) LGE mod 125 119 111 102 93 79 67 58 53 50 49 47 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 14 15 17 20 22 18 19 20 15 15 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 0 3 6 6 6 0 3 3 3 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 256 261 246 239 233 228 218 213 219 227 213 240 275 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.0 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 135 134 135 136 137 136 134 136 136 133 132 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -51.2 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -51.3 -51.3 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 8 9 8 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 60 60 61 60 60 60 58 61 60 64 63 63 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 27 24 26 26 26 28 26 28 27 28 28 850 MB ENV VOR 30 30 39 43 50 59 46 51 60 75 79 69 76 200 MB DIV 16 6 24 40 31 10 19 23 17 40 30 1 3 700-850 TADV 1 2 3 4 9 2 9 7 8 9 11 22 9 LAND (KM) 795 708 624 540 461 315 235 201 242 273 344 474 633 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.3 20.3 21.3 22.3 23.3 24.3 25.3 26.3 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 147.7 148.4 149.0 149.7 150.4 151.9 153.4 154.9 156.4 157.9 159.4 160.9 162.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 26 30 34 26 21 24 20 16 21 13 9 14 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -12. -16. -26. -34. -42. -49. -56. -60. -63. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -13. -14. -13. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. 1. 0. 1. 4. 1. 5. 3. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -24. -31. -48. -58. -61. -67. -64. -67. -67. -67. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/30/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/30/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##