* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972015 08/30/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 27 29 35 43 48 52 55 59 65 66 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 27 29 35 43 48 52 55 59 65 66 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 46 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 8 9 12 13 8 9 5 7 2 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -2 -3 -5 -1 0 1 -5 -5 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 51 43 9 357 328 329 308 288 252 253 305 76 97 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 158 158 156 156 157 158 158 159 157 153 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 80 79 76 75 75 75 78 78 81 81 80 78 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 6 6 7 8 8 10 12 14 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 13 7 12 11 17 16 26 20 21 17 7 0 -6 200 MB DIV 39 28 28 33 52 51 92 66 75 36 29 26 35 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -2 0 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1063 1106 1151 1203 1255 1330 1386 1423 1421 1380 1274 1169 1047 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.6 10.0 10.7 11.6 12.9 14.3 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.5 109.3 110.0 110.7 112.0 113.0 114.0 114.7 115.4 115.9 116.4 116.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 33 35 39 42 42 44 49 55 58 35 23 33 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -6. -9. -11. -9. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 15. 23. 28. 32. 35. 39. 45. 46. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972015 INVEST 08/30/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972015 INVEST 08/30/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##