* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 08/30/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 63 67 70 71 67 62 58 53 48 46 V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 63 67 70 71 67 62 58 53 48 46 V (KT) LGE mod 45 52 59 66 71 76 73 67 61 56 52 50 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 5 2 0 8 15 17 20 18 16 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 9 11 14 9 5 4 0 2 2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 23 64 85 59 178 211 213 228 249 243 250 258 260 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.5 26.9 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 140 136 130 123 119 118 118 118 119 122 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 138 136 132 125 117 112 110 110 109 111 114 116 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 70 72 71 69 65 60 57 50 43 42 36 35 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 19 20 21 20 21 19 17 17 15 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 62 63 70 60 55 39 32 33 4 12 -12 -6 -12 200 MB DIV 28 24 36 55 54 51 22 14 -10 -13 8 -2 0 700-850 TADV -14 -12 -9 -10 -8 1 11 14 11 6 11 4 6 LAND (KM) 286 337 414 504 607 821 1050 1288 1478 1688 1904 2149 2165 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.7 14.2 14.9 15.6 16.8 17.6 18.4 19.0 19.4 19.5 19.8 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 19.5 20.4 21.3 22.2 23.1 24.9 26.9 29.0 31.0 33.1 35.2 37.6 40.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 10 10 11 10 10 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 11 14 13 9 3 13 11 4 1 0 0 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 18. 22. 25. 26. 22. 17. 13. 8. 3. 1. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 08/30/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 08/30/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)