* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL902015 08/30/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 35 38 42 40 39 41 45 45 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 35 38 36 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 24 24 26 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 19 21 18 24 26 38 35 30 15 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -4 -4 -4 -2 -2 -7 -6 -4 -3 7 SHEAR DIR 247 227 218 235 239 210 204 210 207 202 189 171 20 SST (C) 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.4 28.4 27.8 27.2 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 172 171 170 170 170 170 168 168 157 140 132 125 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 170 160 156 152 151 146 143 141 130 115 108 104 97 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 9 9 9 7 9 5 8 4 8 3 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 58 55 57 57 60 61 57 52 50 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 4 2 4 1 3 2 3 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -2 8 -7 -28 -28 -68 -66 -82 -86 -106 -96 -82 200 MB DIV 28 44 39 16 15 31 33 17 -10 -18 -14 -20 -22 700-850 TADV 5 0 2 7 5 1 2 0 2 1 0 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 137 150 170 172 193 144 89 -39 -133 -251 -322 -394 -511 LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.3 25.9 26.5 27.1 28.4 29.5 30.8 31.9 32.8 33.3 33.8 34.4 LONG(DEG W) 82.4 83.0 83.7 84.1 84.6 85.5 86.3 87.2 88.0 89.0 90.0 91.3 93.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 49 43 41 43 48 33 42 20 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 936 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 0. -5. -10. -12. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -5. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 10. 13. 17. 15. 14. 16. 20. 20. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 ERIKA 08/30/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 ERIKA 08/30/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 ERIKA 08/30/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)