* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/30/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 109 102 94 93 91 89 88 90 95 100 98 103 V (KT) LAND 115 109 102 94 93 91 89 88 90 95 100 98 103 V (KT) LGE mod 115 111 106 102 100 97 95 95 98 102 106 108 111 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 13 14 14 12 12 9 11 12 18 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 0 0 -3 0 5 1 -1 7 1 0 SHEAR DIR 254 254 243 258 259 225 262 210 247 235 252 235 246 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 156 156 155 155 154 155 155 155 155 157 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.2 -49.7 -49.8 -49.7 -49.4 -50.5 -50.5 -50.7 -50.7 -50.4 -50.3 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 14 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 52 50 56 53 53 52 48 47 45 45 45 49 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 23 20 24 25 24 24 26 28 31 32 37 850 MB ENV VOR 17 12 29 23 11 0 -10 2 8 19 34 52 48 200 MB DIV -4 5 14 -7 4 25 6 25 13 14 6 -3 -5 700-850 TADV 3 7 3 0 -3 4 6 3 4 4 7 4 0 LAND (KM) 1852 1894 1938 1975 2016 3735 3581 3502 3463 3400 3313 3278 3268 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.2 19.7 20.5 21.2 23.0 24.3 24.8 24.8 25.1 25.6 25.5 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 177.2 177.8 178.3 178.8 179.3 180.0 180.5 181.1 181.9 182.6 183.4 184.4 185.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 8 5 3 4 4 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 44 42 42 43 41 25 45 43 45 46 44 43 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -9. -16. -22. -27. -33. -37. -40. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. 1. 3. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 13. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -4. -8. -11. -12. -12. -9. -7. -4. 1. 5. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -21. -22. -24. -26. -27. -25. -20. -15. -17. -12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/30/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/30/15 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##