* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/30/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 111 100 92 81 66 55 50 48 49 50 51 52 V (KT) LAND 120 111 100 92 81 66 55 50 48 49 50 51 52 V (KT) LGE mod 120 112 103 95 87 73 62 54 49 47 44 43 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 13 17 21 24 25 23 22 20 19 11 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 4 8 6 6 0 2 1 3 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 264 251 234 232 233 216 227 222 240 222 230 282 251 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 134 134 135 136 135 133 134 134 133 131 128 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -51.1 -51.5 -51.5 -52.0 -51.4 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 59 60 60 61 62 60 61 60 61 59 60 59 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 23 26 24 24 23 24 24 25 26 27 28 850 MB ENV VOR 41 42 45 53 57 48 40 48 67 61 62 51 44 200 MB DIV 20 22 41 40 26 39 29 3 47 26 14 24 44 700-850 TADV 0 0 4 10 6 10 7 8 11 16 15 16 13 LAND (KM) 714 640 569 492 423 324 301 274 327 372 467 619 794 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.6 20.1 21.1 22.1 23.1 24.3 25.4 26.4 27.5 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 148.2 148.8 149.4 150.1 150.8 152.2 153.4 154.9 156.5 158.2 159.9 161.5 162.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 9 10 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 30 32 25 19 18 23 16 11 14 13 9 5 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -10. -15. -23. -32. -39. -46. -52. -56. -59. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -16. -16. -16. -17. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -6. -4. -2. 2. 6. 6. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -20. -28. -39. -54. -65. -70. -72. -71. -70. -69. -68. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/30/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/30/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##