* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/30/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 111 109 108 107 107 104 103 95 92 90 84 84 V (KT) LAND 115 111 109 108 107 107 104 103 95 92 90 84 84 V (KT) LGE mod 115 112 110 107 103 100 97 91 83 74 67 60 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 4 5 5 6 7 7 6 9 7 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 4 3 3 1 5 8 8 6 9 4 6 SHEAR DIR 355 357 340 346 347 6 5 7 320 312 305 298 296 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 154 152 149 144 140 137 133 131 131 130 129 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.8 -50.1 -50.4 -50.4 -49.7 -50.4 -49.8 -50.6 -50.3 -51.0 -50.8 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 58 58 58 57 58 57 59 63 64 65 65 64 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 34 34 35 36 38 38 41 38 40 40 40 42 850 MB ENV VOR 51 60 70 75 61 57 58 62 55 62 73 95 103 200 MB DIV 69 74 68 49 40 63 8 14 10 38 15 24 7 700-850 TADV -3 -1 3 0 -4 3 9 9 8 6 8 5 6 LAND (KM) 2112 2171 2237 2312 2235 1980 1772 1615 1489 1390 1303 1225 1145 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.4 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 129.0 130.3 131.5 132.8 134.1 136.4 138.3 139.7 140.8 141.7 142.5 143.2 143.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 10 8 7 5 4 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 53 31 24 22 16 41 28 19 9 7 7 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -19. -27. -34. -41. -46. -50. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 15. 12. 14. 15. 14. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -3. -1. 1. 4. 7. 7. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -11. -11. -20. -23. -25. -31. -31. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/30/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/30/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##