* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/30/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 99 90 85 81 78 82 84 91 94 99 103 101 V (KT) LAND 110 99 90 85 81 78 82 84 91 94 99 103 101 V (KT) LGE mod 110 103 98 94 91 87 89 91 95 100 105 105 103 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 14 15 14 15 12 9 10 13 12 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 -1 4 3 3 0 4 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 250 252 260 261 248 248 254 239 253 244 249 240 254 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 156 156 155 154 154 153 153 155 155 155 155 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.2 -50.0 -50.1 -50.2 -50.1 -50.9 -50.6 -50.8 -50.4 -50.6 -50.1 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 12 11 12 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 53 55 57 56 54 51 49 47 47 46 47 48 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 22 23 22 22 25 26 29 29 31 35 35 850 MB ENV VOR 1 10 19 11 2 -9 -16 -9 1 15 30 45 46 200 MB DIV 7 19 11 20 24 10 16 17 4 26 26 -10 -2 700-850 TADV 6 4 -3 -1 4 7 7 3 3 5 2 3 2 LAND (KM) 1887 1924 1964 1979 1998 2066 3546 3477 3442 3414 3358 3313 3274 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.9 20.5 21.3 22.1 23.6 24.6 25.1 25.2 25.1 25.2 25.2 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 177.7 178.2 178.7 179.0 179.2 179.9 180.6 181.0 181.5 182.3 183.3 184.3 185.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 3 3 4 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 42 43 43 40 32 18 45 45 45 46 46 46 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -19. -24. -29. -33. -36. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 6. 10. 11. 14. 20. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -5. -10. -14. -16. -17. -13. -11. -7. -1. 4. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -20. -25. -29. -32. -28. -26. -19. -16. -11. -7. -9. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/30/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/30/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##