* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/30/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 90 80 72 67 58 52 52 51 50 47 46 48 V (KT) LAND 100 90 80 72 67 58 52 52 51 50 47 46 48 V (KT) LGE mod 100 89 81 73 67 57 50 46 44 43 42 41 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 21 22 25 28 25 21 21 18 15 18 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 5 5 2 5 -2 4 1 2 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 238 228 229 233 227 221 234 229 223 236 278 273 236 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 133 134 135 136 133 133 134 134 132 129 127 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -52.4 -51.6 -52.1 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 60 62 61 62 61 59 58 57 58 56 54 54 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 25 24 25 25 24 27 27 27 26 26 28 850 MB ENV VOR 38 48 52 56 50 49 58 59 62 57 41 37 55 200 MB DIV 29 49 23 7 33 33 19 14 15 10 -6 18 79 700-850 TADV 3 7 13 7 4 10 7 8 7 6 12 2 6 LAND (KM) 648 577 513 443 387 326 282 318 351 422 573 737 893 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.2 19.8 20.4 20.9 22.0 23.0 23.9 24.9 26.0 27.2 28.3 29.3 LONG(DEG W) 148.7 149.3 149.9 150.7 151.4 152.9 154.6 156.0 157.5 159.1 161.0 162.5 163.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 31 23 18 17 22 18 10 15 13 8 9 1 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -13. -19. -24. -29. -33. -37. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -14. -17. -16. -17. -17. -18. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -7. -10. -11. -11. -8. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 1. -1. 0. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -20. -28. -33. -42. -48. -48. -49. -50. -53. -54. -52. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/30/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/30/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##