* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/30/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 122 118 114 112 111 102 98 90 87 84 81 78 V (KT) LAND 125 122 118 114 112 111 102 98 90 87 84 81 78 V (KT) LGE mod 125 122 118 114 112 106 98 89 80 71 64 59 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 3 5 5 10 7 4 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 3 1 7 11 11 7 8 9 1 2 SHEAR DIR 7 28 14 14 352 38 28 344 314 303 314 295 283 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 152 149 147 142 137 134 131 130 129 127 125 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.1 -50.3 -50.3 -50.2 -49.8 -50.4 -50.0 -50.5 -50.6 -51.0 -51.0 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 54 55 55 56 53 53 58 61 63 63 63 62 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 35 34 36 37 40 38 39 38 39 39 40 41 850 MB ENV VOR 58 68 74 61 52 58 61 63 64 75 88 88 108 200 MB DIV 72 62 51 51 47 4 8 9 17 9 5 6 1 700-850 TADV -7 0 0 0 2 5 11 11 7 8 5 5 8 LAND (KM) 2167 2241 2321 2225 2092 1866 1688 1554 1452 1362 1263 1206 1173 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.6 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 130.3 131.7 133.0 134.2 135.4 137.4 139.0 140.2 141.1 141.9 142.8 143.3 143.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 12 11 9 7 6 4 5 4 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 30 24 21 16 19 38 24 15 8 6 6 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -17. -27. -36. -44. -52. -57. -62. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 4. 6. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -3. 0. 2. 6. 9. 9. 8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -13. -14. -23. -27. -35. -38. -41. -44. -47. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/30/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/30/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##