* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972015 08/30/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 37 41 46 51 56 53 54 52 46 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 37 41 46 51 56 53 54 52 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 34 37 39 41 43 43 43 41 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 12 18 16 17 13 9 10 12 6 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 5 -2 -3 -4 1 0 0 -3 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 227 268 311 314 309 264 258 199 177 210 125 184 201 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.1 28.5 27.9 27.3 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 159 159 159 159 160 159 155 149 142 136 131 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 78 76 76 76 75 75 74 73 74 69 67 57 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 12 12 14 16 18 16 17 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 6 11 17 11 18 30 18 13 8 6 1 16 26 200 MB DIV 93 70 63 65 65 76 33 34 50 20 26 19 22 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -3 -4 -1 -4 2 4 3 -1 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1001 1016 1034 1046 1057 1067 1086 1055 957 844 752 596 407 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.2 11.4 12.1 12.9 14.0 15.4 17.0 18.5 20.2 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.6 109.2 109.8 110.4 111.5 112.6 113.5 114.5 115.1 115.5 115.3 114.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 40 44 48 48 42 35 61 60 36 19 11 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 11. 12. 11. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 12. 16. 21. 26. 31. 28. 29. 27. 21. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972015 INVEST 08/30/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 3.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972015 INVEST 08/30/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##