* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 08/31/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 69 71 72 69 61 54 46 39 33 28 27 V (KT) LAND 60 65 69 71 72 69 61 54 46 39 33 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 60 66 71 72 72 67 61 55 50 46 43 41 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 3 4 6 11 16 22 23 25 25 20 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 11 9 8 7 5 2 0 2 3 2 5 1 SHEAR DIR 313 229 244 242 234 241 246 245 247 254 258 271 270 SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 132 127 122 120 116 115 115 117 120 122 122 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 128 121 115 113 108 106 105 107 109 110 109 110 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 67 65 62 58 55 53 48 44 44 41 38 37 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 22 21 21 19 18 16 14 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 70 53 44 41 37 22 12 -6 0 -34 -38 -54 -37 200 MB DIV 32 44 55 61 57 14 -20 -11 -15 -4 -19 -11 -26 700-850 TADV -11 -7 -6 -6 1 10 15 17 9 13 8 4 5 LAND (KM) 472 585 702 804 908 1116 1291 1457 1629 1823 2039 2211 2351 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.6 16.2 16.9 17.6 18.7 19.6 20.3 20.9 21.5 22.1 22.6 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 21.9 22.9 23.9 24.7 25.5 27.4 29.3 31.0 32.7 34.6 36.7 38.4 39.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 9 3 1 11 13 4 0 0 0 0 1 4 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 11. 12. 9. 1. -6. -14. -21. -27. -32. -33. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 08/31/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 08/31/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 4( 7) 3( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)