* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/31/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 102 95 90 89 84 91 94 100 104 105 108 106 V (KT) LAND 110 102 95 90 89 84 91 94 100 104 105 108 106 V (KT) LGE mod 110 105 101 98 96 94 96 101 107 109 110 108 105 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 14 12 11 13 9 9 5 14 10 13 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 -2 -3 -2 0 0 3 4 4 4 0 SHEAR DIR 243 251 260 243 235 244 209 242 226 265 282 283 263 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 156 156 154 154 154 152 153 156 156 157 157 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.0 -50.1 -50.3 -50.1 -50.5 -50.6 -50.5 -50.3 -50.4 -50.1 -50.3 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 54 59 56 57 54 50 49 46 45 43 43 43 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 23 22 24 22 26 28 31 33 33 36 37 850 MB ENV VOR -10 3 3 7 5 -14 -2 6 23 33 53 64 79 200 MB DIV 28 30 23 27 33 12 37 6 28 21 5 0 28 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 4 8 7 6 3 4 3 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 1938 1971 2007 2025 2046 3636 3537 3512 3513 3490 3408 3356 3326 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.4 21.1 21.9 22.6 23.8 24.4 24.5 24.4 24.3 24.4 24.4 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 178.3 178.8 179.2 179.5 179.7 180.4 181.2 181.5 181.7 182.4 184.0 185.2 186.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 6 3 1 2 5 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 42 43 41 36 28 46 46 47 47 48 49 50 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -19. -24. -29. -33. -35. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 1. -1. 5. 8. 12. 15. 15. 20. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -4. -8. -11. -13. -12. -8. -5. -1. 4. 9. 10. 8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -20. -21. -26. -19. -16. -10. -6. -5. -2. -4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/31/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 0.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/31/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##