* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/31/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 89 80 72 64 59 54 56 57 58 58 57 60 V (KT) LAND 100 89 80 72 64 59 54 56 57 58 58 57 60 V (KT) LGE mod 100 91 82 75 70 61 54 52 50 48 47 48 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 20 20 23 24 20 21 15 15 11 19 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 6 4 3 3 2 2 1 -1 2 0 10 SHEAR DIR 234 237 239 221 216 225 215 223 218 268 281 262 215 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.9 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.3 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 133 134 134 133 131 132 134 132 130 127 122 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.9 -51.8 -51.4 -51.1 -50.8 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 60 59 60 60 59 58 58 58 59 59 58 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 25 27 26 25 27 26 29 30 30 30 30 33 850 MB ENV VOR 43 46 49 54 57 55 53 61 56 55 46 45 63 200 MB DIV 58 21 11 38 56 22 18 30 36 9 11 45 92 700-850 TADV 11 10 7 6 12 11 11 12 18 18 21 10 18 LAND (KM) 576 526 488 438 404 341 351 376 376 455 621 817 1041 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.1 20.7 21.2 21.7 22.7 23.8 24.6 25.3 26.3 27.7 29.2 30.9 LONG(DEG W) 149.3 149.8 150.3 151.0 151.7 153.4 154.7 156.1 157.8 159.3 160.7 162.1 163.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 22 17 17 21 24 13 10 12 15 6 5 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -13. -19. -25. -30. -34. -37. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. -14. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -6. -8. -9. -9. -6. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. 0. -2. -4. -1. -3. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -20. -28. -36. -41. -46. -44. -43. -42. -42. -43. -40. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/31/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/31/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##