* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/31/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 130 130 127 123 117 107 100 92 85 83 76 77 V (KT) LAND 130 130 130 127 123 117 107 100 92 85 83 76 77 V (KT) LGE mod 130 130 126 121 115 106 99 89 78 68 60 56 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 5 3 4 4 4 7 12 8 8 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 3 5 6 6 10 10 8 9 5 4 1 SHEAR DIR 4 6 7 357 61 2 15 318 307 300 275 252 249 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 148 146 143 139 136 131 130 129 128 126 124 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.4 -50.4 -50.2 -49.6 -50.4 -49.9 -50.4 -50.2 -50.9 -50.7 -51.5 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 55 55 57 53 54 58 59 61 64 66 66 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 38 37 36 38 38 38 38 38 40 39 42 850 MB ENV VOR 65 72 60 48 50 46 49 45 53 57 79 86 105 200 MB DIV 56 32 43 52 41 4 16 18 41 4 17 -2 46 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 1 1 9 8 8 12 9 8 9 6 LAND (KM) 2253 2334 2191 2067 1944 1765 1608 1484 1394 1315 1238 1183 1152 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.6 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 131.8 133.2 134.5 135.6 136.7 138.3 139.7 140.8 141.6 142.3 143.0 143.5 143.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 12 11 10 8 7 5 4 4 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 24 20 15 21 43 27 21 9 6 4 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -22. -33. -42. -51. -58. -64. -68. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 3. 3. 7. 6. 7. 8. 7. 10. 8. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -3. -7. -13. -23. -30. -38. -45. -47. -54. -53. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/31/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/31/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##