* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972015 08/31/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 42 46 52 61 64 69 67 66 58 48 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 42 46 52 61 64 69 67 66 58 48 V (KT) LGE mod 30 35 40 44 48 55 61 66 70 72 70 64 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 14 12 10 12 6 13 6 5 15 19 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 2 -2 -2 -3 2 -6 -2 -4 0 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 315 315 311 304 276 269 217 191 171 186 149 185 185 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.6 28.1 27.3 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 160 160 159 160 158 155 150 144 137 127 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -51.5 -52.2 -51.3 -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 78 76 75 74 76 74 74 76 71 65 56 47 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 11 13 14 15 19 19 22 21 21 17 13 850 MB ENV VOR 15 12 2 9 19 16 19 18 32 23 33 48 36 200 MB DIV 105 85 72 76 79 74 65 22 60 24 27 7 -3 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -3 -2 -2 -2 1 2 0 0 -3 -4 -7 LAND (KM) 1022 1043 1069 1074 1085 1125 1154 1086 1016 951 855 690 504 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.2 11.5 12.1 13.0 14.1 15.5 16.9 18.4 20.1 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 108.9 109.6 110.3 111.0 112.3 113.5 114.5 115.7 116.5 116.9 116.7 116.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 40 44 48 45 39 53 81 53 47 23 11 6 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 27. 30. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 12. 13. 17. 15. 15. 10. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 16. 22. 31. 34. 39. 37. 36. 28. 18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972015 INVEST 08/31/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 68% is 5.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 46% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 35% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 29% is 6.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972015 INVEST 08/31/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##