* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 08/31/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 78 79 78 73 63 54 48 40 36 31 31 V (KT) LAND 70 75 78 79 78 73 63 54 48 40 36 31 31 V (KT) LGE mod 70 76 79 78 76 69 60 54 50 47 45 44 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 3 8 12 16 21 24 21 22 18 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 12 12 9 8 8 2 -3 5 1 4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 298 254 268 230 236 234 251 258 260 268 269 275 276 SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 133 129 124 121 119 115 115 117 118 119 121 122 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 123 118 115 112 106 106 108 108 108 109 109 110 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.1 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 67 65 61 58 57 55 51 46 43 38 41 39 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 23 21 20 20 18 16 16 14 13 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 47 38 33 28 18 11 -12 -10 -27 -43 -45 -48 -33 200 MB DIV 42 56 72 72 48 22 -15 -20 -13 -23 -8 -18 -22 700-850 TADV -9 -7 -4 0 4 9 14 9 3 9 0 3 0 LAND (KM) 539 643 751 864 979 1159 1311 1500 1712 1906 2070 2222 2361 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.9 16.5 17.2 17.9 19.0 19.6 20.2 20.9 21.5 21.9 22.4 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 22.5 23.4 24.3 25.2 26.1 27.9 29.5 31.4 33.5 35.4 37.0 38.5 39.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 9 9 10 10 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 6 2 1 16 8 4 0 0 0 0 4 3 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 9. 8. 3. -7. -16. -22. -30. -34. -39. -39. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 08/31/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 08/31/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 6( 10) 6( 15) 4( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)