* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/31/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 109 108 105 103 99 101 99 100 99 104 103 V (KT) LAND 115 112 109 108 105 103 99 101 99 100 99 104 103 V (KT) LGE mod 115 113 110 107 105 101 100 101 104 106 107 109 112 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 14 14 15 8 11 11 15 14 12 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -1 -3 -2 2 0 2 6 9 1 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 240 242 250 251 257 256 235 240 236 262 230 241 221 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 155 154 154 153 154 154 155 155 155 157 158 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.3 -50.2 -49.8 -49.9 -50.5 -50.4 -50.6 -50.2 -50.5 -49.8 -50.2 -49.3 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 11 12 11 12 12 13 700-500 MB RH 52 53 53 52 51 52 47 50 48 50 49 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 20 21 24 24 26 24 27 28 31 31 36 37 850 MB ENV VOR -4 2 1 4 -8 -11 -5 13 22 39 40 48 65 200 MB DIV 29 26 18 14 15 12 3 25 12 -13 27 5 20 700-850 TADV 4 2 3 5 4 2 3 3 4 3 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 1947 1961 1978 2001 2025 3645 3541 3487 3478 3447 3392 3379 3390 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 21.1 21.9 22.5 23.1 23.9 24.7 24.9 24.6 24.5 24.6 24.3 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 178.5 178.8 179.0 179.3 179.5 180.0 180.5 181.2 182.0 182.9 183.9 184.9 185.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 4 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 43 41 35 27 21 16 45 43 48 48 49 50 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -9. -16. -22. -28. -33. -37. -40. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -6. -8. -7. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 2. 7. 8. 12. 13. 20. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -7. -10. -12. -16. -14. -16. -15. -16. -11. -12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/31/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/31/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##