* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/31/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 94 88 81 75 66 62 59 58 59 58 61 61 V (KT) LAND 100 94 88 81 75 66 62 59 58 59 58 61 61 V (KT) LGE mod 100 96 90 83 76 65 57 52 50 48 49 53 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 25 23 26 27 23 21 20 15 14 15 25 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 6 5 6 1 4 0 0 -3 -1 5 3 SHEAR DIR 240 243 233 221 227 222 219 210 203 267 242 197 189 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.4 25.9 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 134 134 133 131 131 132 133 131 128 123 115 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -52.0 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 59 60 62 61 59 58 58 60 60 62 60 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 27 27 27 27 29 29 31 32 32 35 40 850 MB ENV VOR 41 45 44 51 49 42 55 52 62 58 64 95 107 200 MB DIV 22 11 31 52 36 22 31 16 23 20 32 104 57 700-850 TADV 6 3 6 12 12 8 9 13 15 19 15 19 16 LAND (KM) 526 478 443 414 394 375 394 428 461 583 764 1010 1290 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.7 21.3 21.9 22.4 23.5 24.4 25.4 26.3 27.4 28.7 30.7 33.2 LONG(DEG W) 149.8 150.4 151.0 151.7 152.4 153.8 155.2 156.8 158.6 160.4 162.1 163.2 163.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 21 24 20 9 11 12 7 6 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -13. -20. -25. -30. -35. -38. -41. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -10. -13. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -19. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 14. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -19. -25. -34. -38. -41. -42. -41. -42. -39. -39. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/31/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/31/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##