* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/31/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 128 127 123 120 118 111 102 95 88 84 81 80 V (KT) LAND 130 128 127 123 120 118 111 102 95 88 84 81 80 V (KT) LGE mod 130 127 123 118 114 107 99 89 77 65 58 54 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 0 2 2 1 6 6 12 11 5 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 2 3 8 13 14 12 11 8 3 0 SHEAR DIR 16 19 39 66 21 355 17 326 305 306 270 249 248 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 147 144 141 137 133 131 130 127 127 126 125 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.5 -50.3 -49.8 -50.0 -50.5 -50.1 -50.3 -50.4 -50.8 -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 54 53 52 54 55 57 57 59 62 64 63 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 37 38 35 35 39 40 39 40 39 39 41 43 850 MB ENV VOR 71 58 46 50 52 55 49 47 59 61 88 95 98 200 MB DIV 27 30 40 20 5 22 4 37 15 34 24 20 23 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -2 -1 4 10 11 14 15 13 7 8 6 LAND (KM) 2329 2184 2040 1920 1801 1636 1487 1374 1306 1249 1184 1141 1102 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.4 20.0 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 133.3 134.6 135.9 137.0 138.0 139.5 140.8 141.8 142.4 142.9 143.5 143.9 144.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 9 7 6 4 3 3 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 20 16 30 47 30 21 9 6 4 5 6 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -13. -23. -34. -44. -52. -60. -65. -70. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 1. 2. 8. 9. 8. 9. 8. 9. 12. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -7. -10. -12. -19. -28. -35. -42. -46. -49. -50. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/31/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/31/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##