* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972015 08/31/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 41 47 53 54 51 45 38 28 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 41 47 53 54 51 45 38 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 30 33 36 38 39 37 33 29 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 9 11 9 7 9 14 12 19 26 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 -4 -5 -5 -4 -1 1 -4 2 1 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 332 321 315 275 266 259 226 184 183 176 180 182 196 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.4 28.7 27.8 27.3 27.1 26.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 160 160 160 160 159 152 142 136 134 132 134 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 77 76 74 75 74 74 71 71 64 61 53 48 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 11 12 13 14 16 18 19 18 15 11 6 850 MB ENV VOR 5 1 5 13 20 17 11 0 4 -3 9 24 16 200 MB DIV 94 83 73 70 77 55 40 42 41 38 25 23 31 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 2 5 5 -4 -2 -6 -3 LAND (KM) 1056 1053 1047 1041 1044 1048 978 841 713 581 429 236 91 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.7 12.2 13.2 14.7 16.5 18.5 20.2 21.4 23.1 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 108.8 109.4 109.9 110.6 111.3 112.4 113.4 114.3 115.0 115.0 114.3 113.7 113.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 42 47 48 37 32 47 43 24 11 7 5 2 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 28. 31. 33. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 15. 12. 9. 3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 22. 28. 30. 26. 20. 13. 3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972015 INVEST 08/31/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972015 INVEST 08/31/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##