* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 08/31/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 72 72 70 63 54 47 41 36 30 27 26 V (KT) LAND 70 72 72 72 70 63 54 47 41 36 30 27 26 V (KT) LGE mod 70 72 72 71 68 62 55 51 48 45 43 42 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 8 11 15 18 25 23 21 20 23 23 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 8 8 7 8 5 -3 0 7 2 2 0 3 SHEAR DIR 271 271 247 244 241 235 251 255 256 264 267 269 275 SST (C) 27.8 27.2 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.4 26.7 26.9 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 127 121 118 117 115 114 114 114 117 120 122 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 121 114 110 109 106 105 104 104 106 108 109 111 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 63 62 58 57 54 51 45 42 39 40 38 39 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 21 21 19 17 17 16 15 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 32 30 24 5 8 4 -13 -7 -28 -33 -62 -42 -50 200 MB DIV 57 66 65 41 32 3 -5 -16 7 -11 -18 -13 -10 700-850 TADV -10 -6 0 3 5 13 15 3 9 3 5 4 2 LAND (KM) 637 748 861 973 1068 1239 1408 1589 1782 1967 2130 2282 2415 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.8 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.6 20.1 20.6 21.3 21.9 22.4 22.9 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 23.3 24.2 25.1 26.0 26.9 28.8 30.5 32.3 34.2 36.0 37.6 39.1 40.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 14 13 6 0 0 0 0 0 1 9 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -7. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 0. -7. -16. -23. -29. -34. -40. -43. -44. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 08/31/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 08/31/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 4( 12) 0( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED