* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/31/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 110 107 103 102 103 106 103 108 109 114 117 V (KT) LAND 115 112 110 107 103 102 103 106 103 108 109 114 117 V (KT) LGE mod 115 114 111 109 106 103 105 107 110 111 111 115 124 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 13 13 11 9 10 9 15 6 9 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -3 0 1 3 5 7 8 4 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 249 256 240 244 250 241 260 234 257 241 225 235 215 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 156 156 155 154 154 154 155 155 155 158 160 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.4 -49.8 -49.8 -50.2 -50.4 -50.7 -50.2 -50.2 -50.0 -50.1 -49.2 -49.1 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 51 52 53 52 50 50 48 50 46 49 47 50 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 25 24 23 25 26 29 29 33 34 39 43 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -7 1 -6 -18 -11 3 29 32 44 44 59 84 200 MB DIV 30 21 18 8 1 15 17 37 2 18 13 33 17 700-850 TADV 6 3 2 5 4 5 1 5 8 5 1 0 2 LAND (KM) 1997 2011 2027 2051 3685 3571 3497 3454 3423 3402 3366 3350 3335 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.8 22.4 23.0 23.5 24.3 24.7 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.6 24.3 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 179.1 179.3 179.5 179.8 180.0 180.7 181.4 182.3 183.2 183.9 184.5 185.6 186.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 4 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 41 36 30 24 20 46 46 47 47 49 50 50 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -22. -27. -33. -37. -40. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 9. 15. 17. 25. 29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. 2. 4. 7. 7. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -12. -13. -12. -9. -12. -7. -6. -1. 2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/31/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/31/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##