* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/31/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 84 78 74 69 66 62 61 60 57 56 56 57 V (KT) LAND 90 84 78 74 69 66 62 61 60 57 56 56 57 V (KT) LGE mod 90 85 79 74 69 60 54 52 52 52 53 57 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 24 28 26 25 21 23 20 15 16 21 30 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 4 7 5 4 2 0 -2 0 3 5 0 SHEAR DIR 239 235 227 227 227 218 228 215 253 275 245 206 208 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.2 25.2 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 140 140 139 137 138 138 136 131 125 116 109 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 58 57 58 59 58 59 63 60 59 59 66 71 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 26 26 27 27 28 28 29 29 30 30 33 37 850 MB ENV VOR 50 42 46 48 35 36 48 39 42 49 63 92 79 200 MB DIV 10 26 38 28 19 29 25 19 6 17 53 109 9 700-850 TADV 12 14 15 16 15 9 12 16 13 12 11 22 14 LAND (KM) 465 424 402 382 372 356 395 448 544 688 868 1099 1381 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.2 21.8 22.3 22.8 23.8 24.8 26.0 27.1 28.2 29.5 31.5 34.1 LONG(DEG W) 150.5 151.2 151.8 152.5 153.1 154.6 156.1 157.8 159.7 161.3 162.7 163.4 163.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 10 9 9 9 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 17 21 24 20 14 9 11 12 5 1 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -10. -15. -18. -22. -26. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -19. -23. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 8. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -16. -21. -24. -28. -29. -30. -33. -34. -34. -33. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/31/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/31/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##