* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972015 08/31/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 33 39 43 46 46 43 37 29 24 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 33 39 43 46 46 43 37 29 24 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 29 26 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 8 11 13 8 9 10 8 18 24 27 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -5 -5 -2 1 -4 0 -3 0 -4 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 324 312 290 275 279 233 226 180 218 183 196 187 194 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.7 28.3 27.7 27.2 27.0 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 158 156 157 156 151 146 140 135 131 128 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 -51.6 -52.2 -51.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 74 72 75 72 72 73 72 68 60 53 46 39 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 12 13 13 15 15 17 16 14 12 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -7 1 9 4 0 -7 -10 -4 12 7 20 14 200 MB DIV 79 57 53 73 52 51 19 49 17 12 1 10 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -3 0 0 0 0 -3 -7 -7 -5 LAND (KM) 1077 1066 1054 1062 1078 1063 928 834 759 640 439 317 266 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 9 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 44 47 40 34 42 59 33 21 12 8 5 4 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 8. 9. 11. 11. 8. 4. -2. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 14. 18. 21. 21. 18. 12. 4. -1. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972015 INVEST 08/31/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972015 INVEST 08/31/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##