* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 08/31/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 69 67 65 59 51 45 38 35 29 26 25 V (KT) LAND 70 70 69 67 65 59 51 45 38 35 29 26 25 V (KT) LGE mod 70 70 69 67 64 59 55 51 47 44 42 41 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 16 17 15 20 26 21 23 18 23 26 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 -2 -5 5 2 3 1 3 3 SHEAR DIR 259 247 253 257 252 247 246 251 265 265 263 270 270 SST (C) 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.9 27.2 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 126 121 118 116 115 114 113 114 115 117 123 126 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 114 110 108 106 105 103 103 104 106 111 112 113 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 61 59 57 56 53 45 40 38 36 38 33 35 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 21 20 19 17 17 15 15 12 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 43 32 12 14 8 -8 -32 -34 -51 -50 -73 -67 -70 200 MB DIV 49 50 50 50 34 -11 -22 -3 -12 -12 -10 -13 28 700-850 TADV -2 4 4 1 2 9 7 -1 6 0 3 1 0 LAND (KM) 753 866 981 1062 1140 1323 1494 1658 1823 2006 2218 2403 2473 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.4 20.2 20.9 21.4 21.8 22.4 23.1 23.8 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 24.2 25.1 26.0 26.9 27.8 29.7 31.4 33.0 34.6 36.4 38.5 40.3 41.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 9 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 13 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 15 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -4. -7. -7. -10. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -5. -11. -19. -25. -32. -35. -41. -44. -45. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 08/31/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 08/31/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 0( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)