* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/31/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 113 111 113 113 117 114 108 111 114 118 120 V (KT) LAND 115 114 113 111 113 113 117 114 108 111 114 118 120 V (KT) LGE mod 115 113 112 111 109 111 116 115 113 114 114 118 126 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 5 9 13 14 11 5 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 -1 1 -1 4 5 8 6 8 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 255 221 223 242 242 231 252 245 274 270 277 222 209 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 156 155 154 154 153 153 154 156 157 159 161 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -49.9 -49.8 -50.1 -50.2 -49.9 -50.4 -50.0 -50.4 -50.0 -50.2 -49.4 -49.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 13 12 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 700-500 MB RH 52 52 51 49 49 46 46 44 47 47 47 46 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 27 25 27 27 32 32 31 35 38 43 45 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -6 -4 -14 -2 1 27 38 34 53 68 88 120 200 MB DIV 19 29 27 16 15 -12 24 19 -4 29 25 32 27 700-850 TADV 0 -5 0 4 8 2 2 5 3 -1 -1 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 2021 2047 3725 3668 3611 3537 3468 3444 3437 3417 3356 3329 3295 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.4 23.1 23.6 24.0 24.4 24.8 24.8 24.6 24.4 24.4 24.2 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 179.4 179.7 180.0 180.3 180.5 181.2 181.8 182.3 182.9 183.8 185.2 186.4 187.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 5 4 3 3 2 4 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 37 31 24 48 48 46 44 44 48 49 50 51 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -16. -22. -27. -33. -37. -40. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 3. 3. 10. 11. 9. 15. 20. 26. 28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -2. -2. 2. -1. -7. -4. 0. 3. 5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/31/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/31/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##