* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/31/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 84 78 73 70 64 66 65 67 68 70 77 73 V (KT) LAND 90 84 78 73 70 64 66 65 67 68 70 77 73 V (KT) LGE mod 90 85 80 76 71 64 61 60 61 62 67 69 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 24 27 23 22 20 8 15 13 19 35 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 1 0 4 -3 -2 -2 3 4 5 -3 SHEAR DIR 233 224 229 231 226 225 213 215 293 251 231 206 180 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.0 26.5 25.9 25.0 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 139 138 138 139 138 133 128 122 114 107 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.4 -51.4 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -51.4 -52.1 -52.0 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 59 58 57 58 60 57 61 59 61 62 64 67 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 29 31 32 35 42 41 850 MB ENV VOR 42 40 32 32 36 32 50 53 52 57 94 137 110 200 MB DIV 29 40 24 28 27 30 8 9 14 34 101 125 28 700-850 TADV 9 15 13 9 7 9 16 16 14 19 20 30 19 LAND (KM) 424 392 372 355 348 384 399 477 621 782 958 1179 1453 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.8 22.4 22.9 23.4 24.4 25.4 26.5 27.7 28.9 30.2 32.2 34.8 LONG(DEG W) 151.2 152.0 152.7 153.4 154.1 155.6 157.5 159.2 160.7 162.0 163.2 163.6 163.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 9 10 9 9 8 9 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 22 24 17 12 9 11 16 5 5 8 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -10. -15. -19. -23. -26. -30. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -12. -14. -18. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 5. 4. 7. 8. 12. 23. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -17. -20. -26. -24. -25. -23. -22. -20. -12. -17. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/31/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/31/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##