* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/31/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 123 122 122 118 112 100 92 86 80 75 72 73 V (KT) LAND 125 123 122 122 118 112 100 92 86 80 75 72 73 V (KT) LGE mod 125 121 116 111 107 96 85 74 68 63 59 58 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 0 1 5 8 4 7 7 10 14 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 5 8 9 12 13 13 9 3 0 3 5 SHEAR DIR 21 160 219 347 316 328 310 291 286 265 269 275 266 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 146 144 141 138 136 135 133 131 130 130 129 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.2 -50.4 -50.4 -50.4 -50.3 -50.2 -50.2 -50.4 -50.5 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 10 9 8 7 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 56 55 58 58 56 57 61 64 64 63 64 63 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 36 38 39 38 41 39 39 40 41 42 43 45 850 MB ENV VOR 45 48 52 52 56 53 59 67 69 89 85 84 98 200 MB DIV 54 50 26 29 23 10 21 26 33 19 19 30 35 700-850 TADV -2 5 8 7 10 12 14 16 11 9 8 12 19 LAND (KM) 2011 1901 1790 1698 1607 1467 1386 1306 1236 1203 1193 1154 1111 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.7 18.1 18.6 19.3 19.8 20.1 20.6 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 136.2 137.2 138.2 139.0 139.8 141.0 141.7 142.4 143.0 143.3 143.4 143.8 144.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 8 8 5 4 4 4 2 2 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 40 53 31 23 18 9 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -20. -30. -39. -46. -53. -59. -63. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 3. 5. 5. 7. 8. 10. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -7. -13. -25. -33. -39. -45. -50. -53. -52. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/31/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/31/15 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##