* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/01/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 60 57 54 48 41 32 27 23 22 22 23 V (KT) LAND 65 62 60 57 54 48 41 32 27 23 22 22 23 V (KT) LGE mod 65 61 58 56 54 50 47 43 39 37 36 36 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 16 14 13 16 21 25 26 22 22 22 19 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 5 5 2 -2 0 3 -1 0 0 7 6 SHEAR DIR 247 250 247 238 245 241 245 258 272 269 268 280 278 SST (C) 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.5 26.9 27.2 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 121 118 117 115 115 114 113 113 115 118 123 126 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 111 108 106 106 104 102 102 103 107 111 112 114 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 62 58 58 56 52 46 39 37 37 36 35 36 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 19 19 18 18 15 13 11 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 27 7 8 4 9 -20 -18 -39 -39 -63 -66 -68 -46 200 MB DIV 43 36 54 41 11 -5 -13 -11 -17 -22 -14 -7 -3 700-850 TADV 3 4 1 2 7 12 1 4 1 2 0 -1 1 LAND (KM) 844 960 1058 1126 1198 1364 1535 1688 1822 2002 2219 2394 2531 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.3 21.0 21.6 22.1 22.8 23.4 24.3 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 24.9 25.8 26.8 27.6 28.4 30.1 31.8 33.3 34.6 36.4 38.5 40.2 41.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 8 9 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 6 4 0 0 0 0 1 0 10 13 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -11. -17. -24. -33. -38. -42. -43. -43. -42. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/01/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/01/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)