* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/01/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 111 109 107 104 103 95 93 84 83 77 72 71 V (KT) LAND 115 111 109 107 104 103 95 93 84 83 77 72 71 V (KT) LGE mod 115 108 103 99 96 91 84 78 73 70 68 63 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 1 2 4 0 5 7 6 7 13 18 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 3 9 13 8 9 7 5 2 6 5 SHEAR DIR 283 23 123 202 73 312 262 254 245 236 260 278 280 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 143 141 139 138 135 133 132 132 131 130 127 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.6 -50.8 -50.8 -50.1 -50.5 -50.1 -50.5 -50.5 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 57 56 57 56 56 56 59 61 62 61 61 61 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 36 36 34 37 36 39 37 41 41 41 41 850 MB ENV VOR 53 56 58 67 66 50 58 66 85 92 93 95 96 200 MB DIV 59 16 19 29 40 29 21 24 32 24 49 36 32 700-850 TADV 0 7 6 6 5 12 12 9 8 11 16 21 22 LAND (KM) 1868 1750 1632 1558 1483 1369 1274 1217 1173 1141 1092 1060 1045 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.9 18.6 19.1 19.4 19.9 20.6 21.3 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 137.5 138.5 139.6 140.3 140.9 141.9 142.7 143.2 143.6 143.9 144.4 144.8 145.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 7 6 5 4 3 3 4 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 46 26 20 14 9 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -9. -16. -24. -32. -39. -45. -49. -53. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -1. 3. 2. 5. 3. 8. 9. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -20. -22. -31. -32. -38. -43. -44. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/01/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/01/15 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##