* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142015 09/01/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 40 45 39 35 27 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 40 45 39 35 27 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 35 35 34 32 29 25 23 20 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 20 20 16 13 14 14 21 24 30 24 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -2 1 -4 0 -3 1 0 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 261 255 257 246 239 260 190 225 193 206 197 196 194 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 28.9 28.2 27.7 27.2 26.7 26.2 26.0 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 157 157 154 146 140 134 129 123 120 116 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.5 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 72 73 74 71 70 69 64 59 56 52 43 39 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 14 15 15 18 14 12 8 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 3 9 11 7 4 -11 -14 -17 0 11 9 10 14 200 MB DIV 33 61 63 54 52 27 50 13 26 10 3 10 6 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 0 1 5 8 7 -2 -3 -5 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 1132 1139 1129 1082 1041 906 792 670 540 422 308 254 249 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.8 13.4 14.1 14.7 16.6 18.5 19.9 21.0 22.0 23.1 23.7 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.2 113.8 114.3 114.8 115.5 116.0 116.1 115.6 115.1 114.7 114.5 114.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 9 10 8 7 6 6 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 60 80 76 57 45 26 10 7 4 3 7 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 26. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 1. -2. -7. -11. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 15. 9. 5. -3. -11. -16. -20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142015 FOURTEEN 09/01/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142015 FOURTEEN 09/01/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##