* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/01/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 46 42 40 34 28 24 22 21 23 25 28 V (KT) LAND 55 50 46 42 40 34 28 24 22 21 23 25 28 V (KT) LGE mod 55 50 47 44 42 39 36 33 31 30 31 33 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 14 17 19 25 23 25 20 16 18 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 8 6 1 -2 4 0 1 1 6 7 4 SHEAR DIR 257 250 234 243 246 247 257 271 277 267 270 257 303 SST (C) 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.2 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 118 116 115 115 114 113 113 114 116 119 122 126 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 108 107 106 105 103 103 103 105 106 109 111 113 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 60 58 58 55 54 48 44 37 39 36 38 39 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 19 18 19 18 16 15 14 13 13 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 8 -1 -5 -5 -6 -20 -31 -48 -47 -54 -41 -35 -15 200 MB DIV 23 29 36 9 6 -4 -4 -39 -12 -5 -5 5 14 700-850 TADV 1 2 4 7 9 14 2 7 1 1 0 0 3 LAND (KM) 935 1034 1103 1173 1246 1413 1587 1750 1904 2074 2239 2394 2519 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.6 21.0 21.6 22.3 22.9 23.5 24.3 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 25.7 26.5 27.3 28.1 28.9 30.6 32.3 33.9 35.4 37.1 38.7 40.2 41.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 10 13 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -15. -21. -27. -31. -33. -34. -32. -30. -27. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/01/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/01/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)