* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 09/01/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 68 63 59 56 60 62 61 60 62 64 61 62 V (KT) LAND 75 68 63 59 56 60 62 61 60 62 64 61 62 V (KT) LGE mod 75 69 65 61 58 55 53 52 52 55 54 51 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 26 21 22 22 20 9 11 13 14 23 14 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 3 2 -4 -4 -1 4 5 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 231 233 222 221 219 207 258 292 245 204 207 242 234 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.0 25.2 24.5 23.9 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 135 135 135 137 134 130 123 115 109 103 97 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -52.6 -52.8 -53.8 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 57 58 58 57 56 56 55 58 61 59 60 65 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 27 28 27 26 30 31 31 30 32 35 33 35 850 MB ENV VOR 32 29 25 14 31 40 38 32 39 62 63 85 82 200 MB DIV 12 29 28 28 22 19 9 9 22 74 63 56 40 700-850 TADV 20 14 13 16 14 18 16 12 10 13 15 23 10 LAND (KM) 425 419 426 430 456 477 560 704 880 1087 1333 1616 1886 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.4 24.0 24.5 25.0 25.9 27.2 28.5 29.8 31.5 33.8 36.3 39.0 LONG(DEG W) 152.3 153.0 153.7 154.5 155.3 156.9 158.6 160.4 162.1 163.0 163.1 163.7 164.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 19 12 8 7 8 12 3 9 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -10. -13. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 5. 10. 7. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 3. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -16. -19. -15. -13. -14. -15. -13. -11. -14. -13. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 09/01/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 09/01/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##