* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/01/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 108 106 103 98 94 91 87 80 77 73 71 V (KT) LAND 115 112 108 106 103 98 94 91 87 80 77 73 71 V (KT) LGE mod 115 109 104 99 95 87 80 78 77 73 68 63 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 1 4 3 5 2 3 6 8 13 14 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 5 7 6 6 6 3 4 2 7 9 10 SHEAR DIR 51 128 228 279 313 266 275 260 264 272 276 262 266 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 141 140 139 138 135 134 133 132 130 129 128 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.1 -51.2 -50.3 -50.7 -50.6 -50.4 -50.7 -50.6 -51.0 -50.7 -50.6 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 57 58 57 58 55 56 57 58 58 61 60 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 35 34 36 36 37 39 41 42 42 44 45 44 850 MB ENV VOR 56 53 65 70 62 42 63 85 100 111 95 96 95 200 MB DIV 33 17 26 46 42 6 19 33 46 28 23 47 34 700-850 TADV 12 12 11 6 6 4 6 5 9 10 14 20 14 LAND (KM) 1739 1643 1547 1477 1408 1294 1223 1177 1131 1099 1085 1066 1047 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.5 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.5 20.1 20.9 21.6 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 138.7 139.5 140.4 141.0 141.6 142.6 143.2 143.6 144.0 144.3 144.5 144.8 145.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 6 6 5 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 25 19 13 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -17. -25. -33. -39. -45. -50. -53. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 8. 11. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -9. -12. -17. -21. -24. -28. -35. -38. -42. -44. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/01/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/01/15 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##