* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142015 09/01/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 36 41 39 36 30 23 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 36 41 39 36 30 23 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 30 28 26 24 21 19 17 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 14 12 11 6 17 18 27 27 26 21 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 0 -1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 253 252 248 228 247 215 195 189 186 186 189 176 223 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.2 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 157 158 157 152 145 140 135 130 126 123 124 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -51.2 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 75 74 72 70 67 65 58 55 51 46 38 37 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 14 14 16 14 12 10 8 5 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 11 12 14 14 9 -3 -6 -7 -8 12 12 20 6 200 MB DIV 73 66 64 67 28 41 33 9 16 19 10 36 30 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -1 0 0 4 6 -1 -1 -2 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1172 1174 1134 1076 1024 900 785 652 516 398 301 270 277 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.9 13.5 14.3 15.1 16.9 18.6 19.9 21.0 21.9 22.8 23.1 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 113.1 113.7 114.2 114.7 115.2 115.8 116.0 115.8 115.2 114.6 114.3 114.2 114.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 9 7 6 6 5 3 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 76 83 69 49 45 22 10 7 4 3 2 12 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 26. 27. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 2. -1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 11. 9. 6. 0. -7. -14. -18. -20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142015 FOURTEEN 09/01/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142015 FOURTEEN 09/01/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##