* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/01/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 41 38 35 32 25 22 22 22 23 25 28 V (KT) LAND 50 45 41 38 35 32 25 22 22 22 23 25 28 V (KT) LGE mod 50 45 42 39 38 36 33 31 30 31 32 33 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 15 18 23 22 25 20 19 17 19 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 5 1 -1 0 2 -2 1 2 5 2 4 SHEAR DIR 256 237 240 241 241 250 253 271 281 262 267 264 311 SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 118 117 116 115 114 114 114 115 117 121 124 128 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 109 107 106 104 103 104 103 105 109 110 112 112 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 58 55 53 51 49 45 40 38 36 37 41 47 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 17 17 16 17 14 13 13 12 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 3 0 -1 -7 -13 -14 -41 -40 -54 -41 -33 -20 -30 200 MB DIV 24 32 5 0 -5 -2 -16 -27 -13 -14 -20 -6 -6 700-850 TADV 3 3 4 5 11 4 6 3 0 2 -2 2 4 LAND (KM) 1036 1134 1218 1293 1369 1519 1689 1853 2006 2157 2322 2429 2490 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.4 21.2 21.9 22.4 23.1 24.0 25.2 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 26.6 27.6 28.5 29.3 30.1 31.6 33.3 34.9 36.4 37.9 39.5 40.5 41.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 5 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 7 13 9 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -15. -18. -25. -28. -28. -28. -27. -25. -22. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/01/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/01/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)