* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 09/01/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 63 59 57 56 59 61 62 62 64 62 62 59 V (KT) LAND 70 63 59 57 56 59 61 62 62 64 62 62 59 V (KT) LGE mod 70 65 62 59 57 55 53 51 52 53 51 46 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 23 22 23 22 15 12 12 16 22 22 24 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 1 0 -3 -3 -1 3 0 -1 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 235 226 223 221 220 205 307 269 239 180 233 200 238 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.1 26.6 26.1 25.3 24.7 24.2 23.7 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 135 135 136 135 130 124 116 111 105 99 92 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.7 -53.2 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 56 55 54 53 56 53 56 60 64 58 60 55 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 27 28 29 31 31 32 32 34 34 37 35 850 MB ENV VOR 31 26 29 37 37 41 34 35 59 64 69 86 59 200 MB DIV 33 28 38 32 31 38 7 22 61 92 38 23 17 700-850 TADV 6 11 13 10 17 18 15 8 18 13 17 8 0 LAND (KM) 385 402 436 469 484 543 666 835 1037 1267 1557 1783 1849 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.9 24.6 25.2 25.7 26.9 28.2 29.6 31.2 33.1 35.6 37.6 39.4 LONG(DEG W) 153.3 154.0 154.6 155.3 156.1 157.8 159.6 161.1 162.4 163.4 164.3 164.8 165.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 12 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 8 7 7 6 5 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -8. -11. -16. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 12. 13. 16. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -11. -13. -14. -11. -9. -8. -8. -6. -8. -8. -11. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 09/01/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 09/01/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##