* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/01/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 100 95 94 91 85 82 81 81 76 73 70 67 V (KT) LAND 105 100 95 94 91 85 82 81 81 76 73 70 67 V (KT) LGE mod 105 99 94 89 85 77 74 74 73 72 68 63 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 7 8 6 5 5 0 9 12 17 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 8 4 7 4 5 7 7 6 SHEAR DIR 277 277 294 317 312 304 315 315 292 291 285 273 277 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 140 139 138 136 135 134 133 131 130 129 128 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -50.3 -50.3 -50.4 -50.0 -50.6 -50.0 -50.6 -50.1 -50.6 -50.1 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 56 56 57 55 56 57 55 54 51 51 52 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 34 34 38 37 37 38 40 41 42 43 43 41 850 MB ENV VOR 69 70 70 69 65 57 79 103 107 113 110 112 99 200 MB DIV 23 24 34 22 30 11 17 41 16 33 37 31 19 700-850 TADV 19 15 8 3 3 8 5 5 11 17 25 29 17 LAND (KM) 1635 1546 1456 1399 1341 1249 1180 1123 1078 1039 995 965 938 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.5 17.7 18.2 18.6 19.1 19.8 20.5 21.1 22.0 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 139.6 140.4 141.2 141.7 142.2 143.0 143.6 144.1 144.5 144.9 145.4 145.9 146.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 5 5 4 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 19 13 9 8 9 9 9 9 7 5 4 4 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -7. -12. -19. -26. -31. -36. -40. -44. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. 1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 7. 9. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -11. -14. -20. -23. -24. -24. -29. -32. -35. -38. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/01/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/01/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##