* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142015 09/01/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 41 39 34 29 24 22 24 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 41 39 34 29 24 22 24 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 32 33 34 32 30 27 25 24 23 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 11 10 6 14 14 14 16 9 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -3 -3 0 -2 0 0 0 -2 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 254 248 221 246 270 191 207 205 222 202 186 203 257 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.6 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 157 157 155 150 143 139 136 134 133 133 133 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.1 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 5 700-500 MB RH 73 70 69 66 65 62 57 53 50 42 41 43 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 14 16 17 14 12 9 6 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 17 13 9 3 0 -7 -15 -10 6 9 9 -4 200 MB DIV 75 62 66 39 18 53 22 10 -1 12 16 32 9 700-850 TADV -2 0 1 3 2 5 1 -2 -5 -3 -5 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1166 1132 1073 1002 937 831 715 591 459 381 362 362 376 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.4 14.1 15.0 15.9 17.4 18.9 20.1 21.1 21.7 21.8 21.8 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 113.3 113.8 114.2 114.6 115.0 115.4 115.4 115.0 114.3 113.9 113.7 113.7 113.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 9 8 7 6 5 2 0 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 81 77 57 41 34 15 10 7 6 7 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 1. -1. -5. -9. -14. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 11. 9. 4. -1. -6. -8. -6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142015 FOURTEEN 09/01/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 2.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142015 FOURTEEN 09/01/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##