* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/01/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 36 33 30 27 24 23 21 21 21 24 25 V (KT) LAND 45 40 36 33 30 27 24 23 21 21 21 24 25 V (KT) LGE mod 45 40 37 35 34 32 30 29 28 28 27 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 20 25 27 26 22 21 27 27 24 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 0 -3 -6 0 -1 0 -1 0 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 249 242 239 242 245 257 260 263 271 268 275 300 311 SST (C) 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.3 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 116 116 115 115 114 114 114 116 120 123 125 129 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 107 106 106 104 103 103 105 107 109 109 112 113 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 53 52 49 47 43 41 36 40 42 51 49 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 15 14 14 14 13 11 11 9 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 9 4 4 -4 -10 -20 -28 -35 -50 -36 -49 -50 -64 200 MB DIV 13 -4 -3 4 -14 -7 -6 -16 -10 -11 -14 -17 2 700-850 TADV -1 -1 1 8 7 0 4 5 5 2 3 3 4 LAND (KM) 1139 1216 1294 1376 1458 1598 1761 1924 2075 2220 2335 2424 2422 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.2 20.8 21.5 22.3 23.3 24.1 24.8 25.8 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 27.6 28.4 29.3 30.1 31.0 32.4 34.0 35.6 37.1 38.5 39.6 40.4 40.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 11 11 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -8. -10. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -14. -18. -21. -22. -24. -24. -24. -21. -20. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/01/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/01/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED