* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 09/01/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 58 58 59 63 61 59 58 59 60 60 54 V (KT) LAND 65 61 58 58 59 63 61 59 58 59 60 60 54 V (KT) LGE mod 65 62 59 58 58 57 56 55 54 54 52 48 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 18 22 21 5 14 21 15 25 13 4 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 3 -2 -7 0 -3 0 5 -1 -2 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 221 220 218 223 201 250 333 292 238 181 238 138 331 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.3 26.9 26.2 25.4 24.8 24.6 24.0 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 137 138 138 137 133 126 117 111 109 103 92 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 56 54 54 56 57 56 58 62 59 51 52 46 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 28 29 31 32 32 32 32 35 36 36 32 850 MB ENV VOR 27 25 30 38 44 48 39 42 77 94 111 103 95 200 MB DIV 20 25 48 30 28 5 13 27 68 69 41 -14 15 700-850 TADV 4 10 8 15 16 17 13 9 17 8 14 6 3 LAND (KM) 357 373 407 417 438 501 644 858 1079 1308 1533 1769 1967 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.1 24.7 25.2 25.7 26.7 27.9 29.5 31.2 33.0 34.8 36.8 38.8 LONG(DEG W) 154.1 154.9 155.7 156.5 157.3 158.9 160.8 162.4 163.7 164.9 166.0 166.9 167.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 10 10 15 4 3 6 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -13. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 10. 12. 12. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -7. -5. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -11. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 09/01/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 09/01/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##